Lets face the facts
Anonymous
8 Jun 2023 12:45:28 UTC
Topic 229643
(moderation:
The time of cheap energy and sports cars is now over. Flying would get more costly and to travel by train would be the new norm.
Setting up some old computers, just for the fun of crunching, is over too. In the future, it is either energy efficency or solar panels.
Stefan
Stefan wrote: The time of
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I 100% disagree with you on this!! I can buy a dual Xeon quad core off business lease pc, from Ebay, for about $250US put Linux on it and be crunching in under 1 hour with 16 cpu cores!! The cost of electricity in my area is about $0.062 cents per hour and that's buying it from the power company. If I put an Nvidia 1070Ti gpu in it I can also crunch gpu tasks though I would need to reduce the cpu cores to only 15 for cpu crunching to do it. NO they are not the fastest pc's on the block nor will they set any speed records running at only-[at]-2.4ghz but they can crunch just fine and since most projects don't need anything done yesterday they work just fine.
Adding solar panels to offset Boinc crunching is a no win situation if you don't already have some existing panels anyway, sure the panel prices are dropping but the installation costs aren't and trying to put up 20+ panels on a 2nd or 3rd story roof is not practical for most people especially if they have to work for a living. Also after about 20 years every single solar panel will need to be replaced as their output will drop below the cost of keeping things running. Here in the US not every power company is required to buy back any excess power you generate and those that do only pay wholesale or below rates anyway making another reason not to go to solar power.
If you want to talk the future then you should be talking about mini nuclear power plants in each neighbourhood connected to a deep ground water supply. The militarys of the World are using these now for major emergencies on remote islands etc where they have nothing at all post disaster , with most of them having unlimited access to water supplies all that needs to be done is connect to what's left of the existing power grid and the power is back on again.
Stefan wrote: The time of
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Stefan, I am now paying less than $3/gallon for gasoline, and the total fuel cost for my daily ride (a sporty PHEV SUV with ~400 HP and >400 lb/ft torque) is approximately $0.10 a mile. In part that reflects the fact that my employer uses solar panels to power free charging stations for its employees' EVs and PHEVs. Cheap gasoline here in the southern United States in part reflects the 40% drop in crude oil prices in the past year. So, for now, in my region it is still possible to use big trucks and sporty cars as a daily mode of transportation. However, I must admit that my wife and I are trying to cut our energy costs (a little) by sharing a single vehicle for our 20-minute (10-mile) drive to/from work. The fuel cost for my wife's car is approximately $0.14 a mile, so it makes much more sense for us to share my PHEV SUV than her car.
Of course, lots of things could drive a rebound of global oil prices: (1) China's economy bounces back; (2) OPEC continues to cut production; (3) restrictions on the global sale of Russian oil become more effective. If a rebound does occur, I will have to consider additional changes to our life choices. And, of course, your situation in Germany is much different than mine.
I largely agree with your comment about crunching. Indeed, energy costs are about to force me to cut back on my voluntary crunching. I won't decommission my rigs, as I still use them for professional purposes (3-D protein modeling, drug/target docking, big data analytics). But, I can't afford to donate GPU cycles and keep my home comfortably cool.
"I was born in a small town, and I live in a small town." - John Mellencamp
Stefan schrieb:The time of
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The last oasis on the web that has not yet been completely contaminated by green ideology is now also being targeted. I ask for a sense of proportion, reason and constant self reflection: Can ideological goals be implemented in reality under the given circumstances which is societies, people, existing infrastructure? There is cheap energy in most developed countries around the world, because it's a precondition to stay a developed country, e.g. in France, in Norway, in most U.S. states, just not in California. Why? The answer to this question could unsettle citizens (in Germany). Nobody will be banned from driving sports cars nor will the construction of such cars be banned. Flying is an extremely efficient form of transport that requires few infrastructure and has become more and more efficient, safer and cheaper over the last decades. A sales representative driving ~800 km (500 miles) from Hamburg to Munich (because German Railways is chronically unreliable and far too expensive) would do well to take a domestic flight, which is more energy-efficient than driving by car. Ok, some, SOME! short-haul flights are not energy efficient. Ideas to ban domestic flights (in Germany) are to be rejected. Train travel is a fast, safe and energy efficient alternative. I love it. I traveled by train through many countries in western, central and northern Europe.It's perfect in France, in Switzerland, the Netherlands—but not in the country of the world champions in morality (Germany), who think they have to explain to everyone in the world how to live. Operating old computers is part of personal freedom. Whom do you want to ban? And how? For that, the green dictatorship is needed first. The common sense of the democratic majority protects against this. Hopefully you don't want to ban them too? And unfortunately the earth is still spinning, solar panels still don't provide electricity at night. The energy supply is changing, it has been ever since it was invented. But it will DEFINITELY not change in the way as many in Germany dream of, or as the ruling political parties in Germany plan for. The laws of physics prevent that.
[EDIT:] ... and of economics!
mikey schrieb:If you want
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Mikey, please! please! please! please! don't mention the evil "N" word here (I don't dare to write it and I masked yours as good as possible), this evil technology. As you can see in my first post, I didn't, as I'm a responsible and good German citizen. This technology is completely burned, banned, and excluded from public discourse in Germany. It's like suggesting the Holy Roman Church a cooperation project with the Devil to improve the heating system in St. Peter's cathedral in Rome.
It's an impossibility. Any mention of this technology, such as suggesting it could help with CO2 neutrality, generates a society-wide outcry across the political spectrum. We had dramatic damage, tens of thousands of casualties from the explosion of a German n****** power plant after the tsunami incident. That's why we also shut any of them down ASAP. The issue has been burned for at least a generation, probably longer. In the future we will only use solar panels and wind turbines. That's sufficient. Perhaps a few hydrogen-powered gas turbines will be added—if sufficient hydrogen can be produced and if it can be achieved CO2 free, otherwise not. This is the situation in Germany in 2023.
There is no document with the
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There is no document with the label "sign here"!
I dont want you to agree with me, i just say, how it is now.
Stefan
Stefan wrote: There is no
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I don't know what "bubble" you live in Germany, but there are MANY people and of course scientists that live all over the world and they may NOT live in a "bubble" of the new and modern ways of thinking and doing things, especially with the computers that they use.
I know you are becoming, or at least trying to become a regular poster here. And that is fine in and of itself. But since you, Stefan, are relatively new to Einstein, and BOINC in general, I think it would be wise of you to relax a bit and get to know how BOINC works, and do a little research into how things are done and how many forums are understaffed and overworked, before you start making BOLD suggestions to make changes just so YOU can feel more comfortable.
Proud member of the Old Farts Association
Just give me a little bit of
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Just give me a little bit of time to ignore you.
This ultimately devolves to
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This ultimately devolves to population density vs energy density ie. Thomas Malthus was right. Frankly I believe we are in a civilization which has already peaked and technology will decide whether this is a local maximum or a global one. The future belongs to our offspring, as always.
Cheers Mike.
( edit ) Recall that dear Richard Feynman always kindly read every letter sent to him, as he believed that even crackpots might be right ! After a long career grounded upon careful listening to all manner of people, I agree wholeheartedly. So let's keep it civil, shall we ? ;-)
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Stefan schrieb:There is no
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Sure, why should you? Maybe my first post was too harsh... Please accept my apologies. Hmmm, however, I wanted to clarify: it's your perception of 'how it is now' which surely differs from mine. Your're welcome to explain it in more detail. Short exclamations of 'how it is' smell like propaganda for me. I grew up and spent majority of my youth in the Russian-occupied part of Germany. My and older generations developed a deep aversion against fact-free propaganda in this time. I only wanted to tell you that many ... probably the majority out there in the world sees it differently than you.
One can easily get this perception 'how it is' viewing todays German TV, listening to our leading politicians, self-proclaimed energy experts, lobby organizations. But there are also true experts, economists, electric engineers, geologists, physicists who tell a different story 'how it is' which they justify with facts, references, scientific evidence. But they are much more silent. They don't have the time, nor the contacts or the money to counter in high-reach media the contemporary green shoutcasting. They do this in blogs, newspaper articles, reader comments, and parliamentary hearings. It's difficult to dig through meanings, beliefs, and facts, to evaluate expertise against incompetence—for everyone.
Please, don't get me wrong. I'm not one of those German MAGArinos, 'government betrays us... all liars... I'll vote far right' (this nasty fifth column from Moscow we have in Germany), 'to get MY country back'. NO, far from that! I'm also not denying climate change, but I strongly reject one-sided interpretations of scientific results and facts by political organisations, interest groups, lobbies. One example: 'The expansion of renewable energy will make electricity cheaper', although facts prove the opposite and no evidence is given to support this claim. Electricity, Flying get more expensive because of willful political decisions. Traveling by train (less than 10% in Germany today) may 'becomes the new norm', but only through political prohibition of cars. You know what? In Eastern Germany, before 1990, many families traveled rarely and by train and public transports only, because they didn't owned a car and petrol was expensive (relative to their income). Car demand far exceeded production in any socialist planned economy. That's one of the side effects of your imagination of 'how it will be', because that means state dirigisme must be given more weight than liberalism and personal freedoms.
Mike Hewson schrieb:This
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Mike, you're way to pessimistic. There are lots of promising signs that things will change in the near future. In Europe most countries begin to understand the German way on energy policy is a dead end. Mikey mentioned the forbidden "N" word. Lots of this technology will be build in Europe (not in Germany), the U.S., Canada, elsewhere in the next decade to get rid of coal and this low-energy peaf called 'lignite' we burn thousands of tons each day in my home region, in CZ, PL, CR, GR, HU, RO, BG,.... Germany will import energy from neighbours for the time being. Our political and national diversity in Europe allows for trial and error. We'll learn from errors and adapt policies. I believe in our offspring too.