I love that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is getting better over time, but their weakest link is the offensive line. Plus several of the Bears offensive linemen are out with injuries. But the defense is still fantastic. I think they'll do better than 50% and at least make the playoffs. Whether they win in the playoffs may be a different story.
I love that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is getting better over time, but their weakest link is the offensive line. Plus several of the Bears offensive linemen are out with injuries. But the defense is still fantastic. I think they'll do better than 50% and at least make the playoffs. Whether they win in the playoffs may be a different story.
In the playoffs you need to be able to score and if the Defense is as sound as you say it is then the Offense doesn't need to score 50 points but at least 14 to 28 points should be enough to win 99% of the playoff games.
I love that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is getting better over time, but their weakest link is the offensive line. Plus several of the Bears offensive linemen are out with injuries. But the defense is still fantastic. I think they'll do better than 50% and at least make the playoffs. Whether they win in the playoffs may be a different story.
In the playoffs you need to be able to score and if the Defense is as sound as you say it is then the Offense doesn't need to score 50 points but at least 14 to 28 points should be enough to win 99% of the playoff games.
If the defense continues to be as aggressive, or even more aggressive, the I would expect they would be scoring as much as the offense with the turnovers (fumble recoveries & interceptions, etc).
So for me it is that time of year when I get to watch and place a bet on some particular racing drivers in the Bathurst 1000 motor race. I don't bet any other time of the year on anything and I only risk $100 on this.
First : I pick a good pair of drivers (ie. they swap in/out at pit stops throughout the race) in a good team with a hot car. After some thought I come up with Matt Payne & Garth Tander driving for a top team. Top teams make fast cars. Garth has won the race five times, Matt is a hotshot young fellow.
Second : I have to beat the bookies if I can. They're looking at the same data I have too, so when to place the bet ? I choose today's free practice when I know they will be setting the car up for the race, hence the practice times will be ordinary and with a bit of luck Ladbrokes will think they are crap and thus give long odds. Sure enough they place 20th in the running. Then I place a $100 stake at 10:1 with Ladbrokes. Ah, but then there is actual race qualifying and I wait with baited breath and sure enough Matt brings the car in at first place in qualifying! Terrific. Now Ladbrokes suspend their market on the race for about two hours. I think they may have been stumped, probably alot of long money now on the latest best contenders. Sure enough when they restart the market (online) Matt & Garth are the shortest odds in the field at 9:2 now. About 6 driver pairings are shorted down to less than 7:1, the rest being pretty much long odds at 20:1 or higher. I think Ladbrokes is exposed on this, trying to sucker in money on poor contenders using rather long odds as a bait.
Of course now the pair have to win the race, and the history of the race shows it is quite brutal on all contenders. But with $1000 now on the nose of their car it should be a really exciting race for me at least.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Thank you for the commentary. And I hope you are "cheerful" real soon now!
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Of course now the pair have to win the race, and the history of the race shows it is quite brutal on all contenders. But with $1000 now on the nose of their car it should be a really exciting race for me at least.
Cheers, Mike.
When I was betting on the ponies, seems like ages ago now, I seem to remember that when the odds changed even I had gotten in at '10 to 1' and they changed to 7 to 1' my winnings were based on the new number of '7 to 1'. I like the way you guys do it better, it favors the brave.
Bah! Gearbox selection failure about 20 laps from the finish causing the back wheels to spin up, so as to loosen the back end and the car to meet the wall - race over for my guys. They were fifth at the time. But even so, it really was a two car race all along b/w the ultimately first and second placed cars who were just engineered better and flew the fastest. The driving was uniformly pretty amazing amongst the top ten finishers. There was only one safety car called, an all time low, and that was when my car hit the wall. Every other car finished. A bloody good race to watch nonetheless. In any case I am still up on Ladbrokes over the last seven years that I have been betting : $3200 nett profit has become $3100, so I should not complain. It was $100 worth of fun and there's always next year.
As for the betting odds, if you win you get paid at the odds offered at the time of your bet being staked. However the mob where the payout varies if you do win is at the totalisator - a government blessed tax generator essentially - where the total fraction of the stakes to be paid out is fixed, and thus how much you make if you win depends on how many other winners there are. It is a variant upon parimutuel betting (guaranteeing 'the house always wins'). Hardly anyone bothers with the totalisator, as the odds are rubbish compared against independent bookies. In your case it went from 10:1 to 7:1 because other punters also laid a bet on the same nag after you did. With odds fixed at the time of the bet the house/bookie can lose if they are not careful. My strategy is to try to pick a winner then get the best odds available for that choice. Also never chase your losses etc.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
When I was playing the ponies, or playing the slots, I ALWAYS had a fixed amount I could afford to lose, of course if I won the money to play with went up so it was fun until the trip was too long and the odds too small. 2 to 1 on a nag is bad odds and it only went up to 5 or 6 to 1 on the best horses.
Tom M wrote: How about them
)
I love that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is getting better over time, but their weakest link is the offensive line. Plus several of the Bears offensive linemen are out with injuries. But the defense is still fantastic. I think they'll do better than 50% and at least make the playoffs. Whether they win in the playoffs may be a different story.
Proud member of the Old Farts Association
GWGeorge007 wrote: Tom M
)
In the playoffs you need to be able to score and if the Defense is as sound as you say it is then the Offense doesn't need to score 50 points but at least 14 to 28 points should be enough to win 99% of the playoff games.
mikey wrote: GWGeorge007
)
If the defense continues to be as aggressive, or even more aggressive, the I would expect they would be scoring as much as the offense with the turnovers (fumble recoveries & interceptions, etc).
Proud member of the Old Farts Association
So for me it is that time of
)
So for me it is that time of year when I get to watch and place a bet on some particular racing drivers in the Bathurst 1000 motor race. I don't bet any other time of the year on anything and I only risk $100 on this.
First : I pick a good pair of drivers (ie. they swap in/out at pit stops throughout the race) in a good team with a hot car. After some thought I come up with Matt Payne & Garth Tander driving for a top team. Top teams make fast cars. Garth has won the race five times, Matt is a hotshot young fellow.
Second : I have to beat the bookies if I can. They're looking at the same data I have too, so when to place the bet ? I choose today's free practice when I know they will be setting the car up for the race, hence the practice times will be ordinary and with a bit of luck Ladbrokes will think they are crap and thus give long odds. Sure enough they place 20th in the running. Then I place a $100 stake at 10:1 with Ladbrokes. Ah, but then there is actual race qualifying and I wait with baited breath and sure enough Matt brings the car in at first place in qualifying! Terrific. Now Ladbrokes suspend their market on the race for about two hours. I think they may have been stumped, probably alot of long money now on the latest best contenders. Sure enough when they restart the market (online) Matt & Garth are the shortest odds in the field at 9:2 now. About 6 driver pairings are shorted down to less than 7:1, the rest being pretty much long odds at 20:1 or higher. I think Ladbrokes is exposed on this, trying to sucker in money on poor contenders using rather long odds as a bait.
Of course now the pair have to win the race, and the history of the race shows it is quite brutal on all contenders. But with $1000 now on the nose of their car it should be a really exciting race for me at least.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Mike Hewson wrote: Cheers,
)
Thank you for the commentary. And I hope you are "cheerful" real soon now!
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Mike Hewson wrote: Of course
)
When I was betting on the ponies, seems like ages ago now, I seem to remember that when the odds changed even I had gotten in at '10 to 1' and they changed to 7 to 1' my winnings were based on the new number of '7 to 1'. I like the way you guys do it better, it favors the brave.
Bah! Gearbox selection
)
Bah! Gearbox selection failure about 20 laps from the finish causing the back wheels to spin up, so as to loosen the back end and the car to meet the wall - race over for my guys. They were fifth at the time. But even so, it really was a two car race all along b/w the ultimately first and second placed cars who were just engineered better and flew the fastest. The driving was uniformly pretty amazing amongst the top ten finishers. There was only one safety car called, an all time low, and that was when my car hit the wall. Every other car finished. A bloody good race to watch nonetheless. In any case I am still up on Ladbrokes over the last seven years that I have been betting : $3200 nett profit has become $3100, so I should not complain. It was $100 worth of fun and there's always next year.
As for the betting odds, if you win you get paid at the odds offered at the time of your bet being staked. However the mob where the payout varies if you do win is at the totalisator - a government blessed tax generator essentially - where the total fraction of the stakes to be paid out is fixed, and thus how much you make if you win depends on how many other winners there are. It is a variant upon parimutuel betting (guaranteeing 'the house always wins'). Hardly anyone bothers with the totalisator, as the odds are rubbish compared against independent bookies. In your case it went from 10:1 to 7:1 because other punters also laid a bet on the same nag after you did. With odds fixed at the time of the bet the house/bookie can lose if they are not careful. My strategy is to try to pick a winner then get the best odds available for that choice. Also never chase your losses etc.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
+1
)
+1
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Tom M wrote: +1
)
+2
When I was playing the ponies, or playing the slots, I ALWAYS had a fixed amount I could afford to lose, of course if I won the money to play with went up so it was fun until the trip was too long and the odds too small. 2 to 1 on a nag is bad odds and it only went up to 5 or 6 to 1 on the best horses.
Beware the Morrigan this
)
Beware the Morrigan this Samhain.
Richard